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Ran a tiny experiment on my fantasy football league's waiver wire and the "fairest" order actually made things worse
I run a 12 team fantasy league with guys I've known since high school, and for years we've done a straight reverse standings waiver order. Two of the guys kept saying it was unfair because the same bad teams always get first pick, so in August I set up a little test. I pulled our whole waiver history since 2019, about 430 claims total, and scored each team's average waiver spot. The reverse standings order looked fine on paper, but when I ran a simple rotating priority based on who claimed last, the bottom four teams actually got worse players over a 10 week stretch. I think the problem is that the truly bad teams in our league are bad because they don't watch injuries, not because the wire screwed them. The algorithm was fine. The humans picking up Marquez Valdes-Scantling every single week were not. So now I'm wondering if fairness in a league like ours is even something a rule can fix, or if we're just dressing up bad managers in a nicer system. Anyone here ever run a small data test on a rule you thought was broken and found the people were the issue?
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